[Keywords of the times] Demographic cliff, low birth rate crisis, fundamental problem solution

 

‘Population cliff’ is especially severe in East Asian countries, why is that so?

*Source_The Hankyoreh

6 countries in the top 10 in the world for ‘low birth rate crisis’; commonality is the unbreakable operation of ‘Confucian culture’

If you look at the ‘United Nations World Population Prospects 2022’ report released by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs in July of last year, you can see that East Asia’s low birth rate crisis is particularly serious. If you list the total fertility rates of 238 countries around the world (as of 2021) in descending order, the top 10 in the world are Hong Kong (1st, 0.75 people), Korea (2nd, 0.88 people), Singapore (5th, 1.02 people), and Macau. There are six countries, including (6th place, 1.09 people), Taiwan (7th place, 1.11 people), and China (10th place, 1.16 people). The world average ‘total fertility rate’ (the number of children expected to be born to a woman of childbearing age between 15 and 49) is 2.3, but it is not easy for major East Asian countries to exceed 1. Japan, where Prime Minister Kishida was concerned about a crisis in national survival, was slightly better than these countries at 1.3 (19th). Most of the countries in the top 20 are small island countries, except for seven East Asian countries and three European countries (Ukraine, Italy, and Spain). The entire world has experienced a common phenomenon of low birth rates due to industrialization, but East Asian countries are experiencing particularly severe pain. Why.

‘Confucius must die for the country to survive.’ On the 16th, Taiwan’s English-language newspaper <Taipei Times> said that the low birth rate in East Asian countries, including Taiwan, is not only due to economic factors such as high child support costs and housing prices, but also to the region’s unbreakable ‘Confucian culture’. He pointed out that it was because he was doing it. In this culture, childcare and housework are assigned to a specific gender, resulting in women taking a break in their careers and avoiding childbirth. International population journals also draw attention to the fact that East Asian countries experiencing a low birth rate crisis commonly belong to the ‘Confucian cultural sphere’ (Confucianism). In this region, Confucianism has been both a religion and the country's governing ideology, providing ethical principles to society as a whole for more than 2,000 years. Accordingly, scholars say that in this region, △ moral solemnity regarding gender △ strict division of gender roles, resulting in the burden of childcare concentrated on one gender △ culture of success and success that emphasizes social achievement △ academic meritism due to the tradition of passing the exam △ emphasis on diligence rather than life satisfaction It is pointed out that there are 'unique characteristics' that inevitably lead to a decrease in the birth rate, such as a social atmosphere.

The British <Economist> pointed out the issue of education costs as the cause of the low birth rate in May last year. In East Asia, it is common for parents to pay high education fees for their children and reduce living expenses, so they hesitate to have children. Lucy Crehan, an independent British researcher, told this media outlet, “In countries such as China, Singapore, and Korea, children receive private education from elementary school to prepare for exams, and the pressure on parents to send their children to private education is increasing,” adding, “This reduces the cost of living for families. “It’s a threat,” he said.

Even in Asia, countries that are not part of the Confucian culture are relatively free from low birth rates. The birth rate in the Philippines, a Catholic country, is 2.75, and in Vietnam, a Buddhist country, it is 1.94. Islamic countries such as Malaysia (1.80 people) and Indonesia (2.18 people) have similar levels.

In Europe, where I first experienced

Europe has also made several efforts to combat declining birth rates since the 1990s. In a special article titled ‘Birth Rate: Why France Became a Model for Europe’ on the 21st of last month, <Le Monde> reported that France, which suffered from a low birth rate crisis (total birth rate of 1.79 people), has suddenly become Europe’s birth rate champion. According to reports, France devoted a huge budget of about 4% of its gross domestic product (GDP) to family and childcare policies, introducing systems such as childcare leave and family allowances, and perfecting the early childcare system. In addition, a social consensus was reached that recognizes various family types. France enacted PACs, a civil contract system, in 1999 as a measure to protect minorities and increase birth rates, allowing people to have children outside of marriage. The newspaper further pointed out that European countries with high birth rates were generally countries where it was relatively easy to balance work and family.

However, despite these efforts, the birth rate that had once fallen could not be fully recovered. On the 9th, the New York Times cited France, Germany, Sweden, and Denmark as examples and reported that although their strong government support policies suppressed the decline in birth rates, they did not lead to a complete recovery. Some also point out that the perspective on the low birth rate phenomenon itself needs to be changed. “Gloomy assessments of declining birth rates and population decline tend to be exaggerated,” John Wilmoth, director of the Population Department at the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, told the New York Times. “Japan has been fighting population decline for decades, but it is still one of the world’s largest economies.” pointed out. He said, “Japan is not in a death spiral. “(The decline in the birth rate) was not as disastrous as people imagined,” he emphasized.

*Source_Worldwide total fertility rate data (2022·PRB). Provided by U.S. Census Bureau

There is a solution to the problem of low birth rate... It just doesn't solve the fundamental problem

*Source_ Hankyoreh Kim Young-tae <Former CBS Culture and Sports Director>

A recent reading of <KAIST Future Strategy 2023> also revealed this critical awareness. He also points out that ‘the population policies that have been implemented so far have focused only on resolving piecemeal problems rather than solving the root cause of low birth rates. They say that they only put together measures to match the assortment without solving structural problems such as the burden on young people who are driven by excessive competition such as lack of childcare facilities, women's career interruption, soaring apartment prices, skyrocketing private education costs, and employment and housing problems.'

Here is the awareness of the problem and the solution. If you think that it is a society worth living in, it is natural for young people to date, get married, and have children. They give up because the burden is too great. The country and the older generation of politicians must put this issue on the agenda and come up with long-term measures. Low birth rate. It has been a while since the Aging Society Committee was established, and a huge amount of budget is being poured into overcoming the low birth rate, but it is not having any effect.

The root causes of low birth rates are summarized as housing problems, private education expenses, childbirth and childcare environments, women's career interruptions, and youth employment issues. Apartment prices have skyrocketed to the point where it is impossible to buy a house with a monthly salary. The cost of private education is high, including daycare and kindergarten fees. Dual-income couples leave childcare to their parents or use childcare helpers. There are many women who take a break from their careers because of childcare. There are very few regular jobs for young people, and most of them are irregular jobs. It is difficult for the younger generation to live now, and they do not want to pass this on to their children.

I strongly agree with the book’s argument that ‘a strategic plan for future generations is needed.’ In order to solve the problem of equity between future and current generations, an ‘intergenerational contract’ is needed. To this end, it is necessary to establish a legal basis for establishing mid- to long-term policies for future generations, and continuous monitoring of the impact of existing legislation and policies on future generations is also necessary.

Four major pregnancy and childbirth policies that provide strength in the 2024 budget

[Source] Four powerful pregnancy and childbirth policies in the 2024 budget | Author: Ministry of Health and Welfare, Republic of Korea